Inflation Is Cooling — January US Inflation Update

Impact on interest rate expectations and S&P 500’s risk‑reward dynamics

Executive Summary

• Release Summary: January CPI slowed to 2.4% YoY, below expectations, led by energy declines and continued shelter deceleration—signaling disinflation without demand damage and easing equity discount-rate pressure.

• Regime Analysis: Inflation remains in the Q2 moderate-inflation regime, historically associated with ~13% 1Y S&P 500 TR retur…